Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Geonome

Monday, October 19, 2009

Caveat

The financial meltdown of 2008-09 has reduced the money available to provide aid to Africa during this time of drought, economic and political uncertainty.

Euvin Naidoo gave his very optimistic speech before events on Wall Street boiled over into financial markets worldwide.  The spirit of the speech remains true it is a couple of years old and the economic numbers he cited are in need of updating.  Bankers say the World is leaving behind the worst of the recession and the G20 economies appear to be recovering.  Africa represents many great opportunities in developing infrastructures and diversifying its 53 economies. Global Investors have gained confidence enough to allocate funds there to diversify country risks in thier portfolios.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Africa is not a Country

Euvin Naidoo, an Investment Banker, is a leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa.  He provides a convincing argument for a positive outlook for some of the counties(53) that comprise the Dark Continent.  When Africa is first mentioned we immediately think of famine, war, genocide, hunger, corruption, AIDES, slavery and other horrors.

Mr. Naidoo presents the other side of the argument by pointing out that problems can be seen as opportunities for profitable investments,, that Africa is on a path to recovery and a turnaround in its economic fortunes.

He envisions a transformation of fortunes on the Continent as greater offshore investment makes its ways to individual economies, diversification away from cursed commodity based economies,. stable inflation, currency stability and continued strong performances in the many African Bourses.

Investment: Africa

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Sudan may face Civil War again.









Khartoum's Islamist government the northern National Congress Party and SLPA,  in January 2005,  signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement after years of talks brokered by the U.S. and a bloc of East African countries.

The Islamist north and the country's animist and Christian south are approaching war again, the two sides were at war almost continuously from 1955 to 2005.   Between 1983 and 2005, war killed an estimated 2 million civilians—more than six times the number thought to have been killed in Darfur over the past six years.

The 2005 peace agreement that stopped north and south fighting is now on the brink of collapse, and both sides are rearming in advance of an independence referendum in southern Sudan scheduled for January 2011.

If the referendum does fail to take place, the war will almost certainly begin again as the South trys:
-to break free of economic and political domination by the north and
- to get control of Sudan's vast oil resources, much of which lie in the south.

The two sides signed a deal meant to do two things:
- promote democratic reforms and the creation of a unity government over a period of six years—during which time the two sides would split revenues from the south's oilfields.
- at the end of the period, the southerners would be allowed to vote on whether they wanted formal independence.

There's mounting evidence that Khartoum in the north has been cheating the south out of oil revenues while arming rival ethnic groups to foment chaos in the south ahead of the independence referendum.

Khartoum is openly seeking to undermine the referendum, for example, demanding a 50 percent share of the south's oil for 50 years. These underhanded tactics by the north may lead the south unilaterally to declare independence leading to war again.

The U.S.-backed Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA)  has been unable to deliver schools, clinics, or even stability to many parts of the region under its control. Widespread corruption and the failure of the former rebel army to govern effectively has helped Khartoum sell the idea that southern Sudan will morph into a lawless state like Somalia if allowed to separate.

Sudan's civilians are now caught between a heavily armed northern government bent on maintaining control and an angry southern rebel army because petrodollars over the past five years have financed defense spending on both sides.

Getting Khartoum to carry out its obligations under the 2005 deal is probably the only way to stop war but time is running out. Analysts say that, without a breakthrough from the Obama administration and new pressure from Sudan's African neighbors, military action will begin.

Source: Jason McLure

Newsweek Web Exclusive

         Kofi Annan on the need for an African Green Revolution - , Africa, Food, CrisisAgriculture, Salzburg, GlobalSeminar, Farming, UN, Hunger, KofiAnnan - sciencestage.com Agricultural science

         Kofi Annan on the need for an African Green Revolution - , Africa, Food, CrisisAgriculture, Salzburg, GlobalSeminar, Farming, UN, Hunger, KofiAnnan - sciencestage.com Agricultural science

         Patrick Awuah left a comfortable life in Seattle to return to Ghana and co-found against the odds a liberal arts college.

        

Ivey Business Journal - LEADER'S EDGE

Ivey Business Journal - LEADER'S EDGE

CBC Hot Type - Economist Jeffery Sachs on ...

CBC Hot Type - Economist Jeffery Sachs on ...

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on aid versus trade | Video on TED.com

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on aid versus trade | Video on TED.com

Why Obama gets it wrong on Africa, By Andrew M. Mwenda | Foreign Policy

Why Obama gets it wrong on Africa, By Andrew M. Mwenda | Foreign Policy

Andrew Mwenda takes a new look at Africa | Video on TED.com

Andrew Mwenda takes a new look at Africa | Video on TED.com

Chimamanda Adichie: The danger of a single story | Video on TED.com

Chimamanda Adichie: The danger of a single story | Video on TED.com

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Losing Ground with Africa's other big killer

Malaria parasite's resistance to top drug grows: WHO

Wed Sep 23, 2009

The World Health Organization warned on Wednesday that the parasite which causes malaria is increasingly resistant to artemisinin, the best drug around, and failure to contain this trend would bring serious consequences.

The Asia Pacific region has traditionally been the focus of resistance to antimalarial drugs and now we have artemisinin resistance primarily on the Thai-Cambodian border," said John Ehrenberg, WHO regional adviser on malaria and other vectorborne and parasitic diseases.  "If it is not contained, it can have global implications and the most serious one would be in Africa which has a high disease burden and the highest mortality rates," he told Reuters on the sidelines of a regional meeting of the WHO in Hong Kong.

Although malaria is preventable and treatable, there were still between 189 million to 327 million cases in 2006, resulting in between 610,000 to 1.2 million deaths.Half the world's population is at risk, particularly the poor and those living in remote areas with limited healthcare access. A child dies from malaria every 30 seconds.

Artemisinin, derived from the sweet wormwood shrub, is the best drug available but misuse and over-prescription have led to the parasite becoming resistant to it.

Trial HIV vaccine cuts infection

AIDES is one of the biggest killers of African people and any news of  progress in ending this scourge is welcome.  Finding vaccine against HIV has been a 'Holy Grail' of medicine for the past 25 years but such a breakthrough has remained frustratingly out of reach.

During 2007 more than two and a half million adults and children became infected with HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus), the virus that causes AIDS. By the end of the year, an estimated 33 million people worldwide were living with HIV/AIDS.

The year also saw two million deaths from AIDS, despite recent improvements in access to antiretroviral treatment; 1.5 million of those deaths were in sub-Saharan Africa.

The number of people living with HIV has risen from around 8 million in 1990 to 33 million today, and is still growing and  Around 67% of people living with HIV are in sub-Saharan Africa.

Overall breakdown for Sub-Saharan Africa:

22.0 million living with HIV/AIDS Adults & children
1.9 million newly infected Adults & children
1.5 million Deaths of adults & children 

Africa has 11.6 million AIDS orphans.

At the end of 2007, women accounted for 50% of all adults living with HIV worldwide, and 59% in sub-Saharan Africa.

In developing and transitional countries, 9.7 million people are in immediate need of life-saving AIDS drugs; of these, only 2.99 million (31%) are receiving the drugs.

More than 25 million people have died of AIDS since 1981.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the United States National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned the development was "not the end of the road," but said he was surprised and very pleased by the outcome.   "It gives me cautious optimism about the possibility of improving this result" and developing a more effective Aids vaccine, he said. "This is something that we can do."

Science is rightly excited about the results – a vaccine against HIV has proved so difficult many believe it is impossible to achieve – as this is the first time any vaccine has produced as significant reaction in humans.


This time the scientists are claiming that their new combination of two vaccines, which have failed to produce an effect on their own, can reduce the chance of infection by 30 per cent.
This may not sound like a very effective vaccine but in the struggle against HIV which is an extremely complex virus, it has been hailed as an "historic milestone".

The task now is to find how these vaccines worked and accelerate the research to improve the efficacy to a point where the protective effect is large enough for it to be licensed for use in humans. This is likely to take some years but these results have provided the important first step.

The trial was carried out by the U.S. Military HIV Research Program and the Thai Ministry of Public Health.  Let us hope this vaccine lives up to its potential, completes trials and becomes available sooner than the predicted 10 years from now.  The tested vaccine was tested on the particular strain of the virus common in Thailand.  Early days of  the research and a limited trial but still the first time to demonstrate we may be able to develop a vaccine to reduce the spread of the disease.

Story: Trial HIV vaccine cuts infection

"An experimental HIV vaccine has cut the risk of infection by nearly a third in a major trial, researchers say.  The vaccine - a combination of two earlier experimental vaccines - was given to 16,000 people in a joint trial by the Thai government and US military.  It reduced by 31% the volunteers' risk of contracting HIV, the virus that leads to Aids.

The findings have been described as a significant scientific breakthrough but a worldwide vaccine is some way off.   The study was carried out over seven years on volunteers - HIV-negative men and women aged between 18 and 30 - in some of Thailand's most badly-affected regions.

The vaccine was a combination of two older vaccines that on their own had not cut infection rates.   Half of the volunteers were given the vaccine, while the other half were given a placebo - and all were given counselling on HIV/Aids prevention.

The results found that the chances of catching HIV were 31.2% less for those who had taken the vaccine.  "This result is tantalisingly encouraging. The numbers are small and the difference may have been due to chance, but this finding is the first positive news in the Aids vaccine field for a decade," said Dr Richard Horton, editor of the Lancet medical journal."




Source:  BBC Health
AIDES statistics source: The latest statistics on the world epidemic of HIV and AIDS were published by UNAIDS/WHO in July 2008, and refer to the end of 2007.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Humanitarian Disaster Feared As Desertification Spreads


Environmental experts are warning of an impending humanitarian disaster in Africa, emerging from creeping desertification. If unchecked it will undo social and economic progress and millions of people will perish.


Desertification is defined by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as land degradation in arid, semi arid and humid areas arising from various factors such as climatic variations and human activities. These include over-cultivation, overgrazing, deforestation, poor irrigation practices and other factors leading to inappropriate land use.  Because of those   practices, the effects of desertification are already being felt across much of Africa...

In a paper titled ‘Desertification: the scourge of Africa’, Darkoh says at least 25 countries on the continent have faced serious food shortages in the past decade as a result of extended drought. “The reduced capacity for food production has brought a population of over 200 million people to the verge of calamity,” he says.



source: August 20th, 2009 · by Lilian Aluanga

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Solar-Energy Projects give hope to Africa

The Solar Energy Foundation is a German charity that has wired 5500 homes in Rema Village, Ethiopa with 1,100 solar panels allowing residents lights in their huts,  to play radios and to use other small electrical devices. 

Only one percent of Ethiopa's rural residents have access to electricity necessitating the use of diesel generators and kerosene lamps. Clean solar power has social and health benefits, says Harald Schutzeichel, the founder and director of the Solar Energy Foundation. He says it allows medical clinics to keep vaccines for polio and other diseases refrigerated, fuels water pumps, and creates local jobs for electrical technicians, which the European energy group trains.

The project, which is the largest of its kind East Africa and cost roughly $450,000, should be duplicated in other impoverished parts of the continent. “We’re trying to sell this model,” he says. “This is the power equivalent of the cell phone.” 

Cell phones not only offer opportunity through voice services but emerging technologies that bring Internet access to phones, bypassing the need for a computer for connecting to the World Wide Web.  Computers are rare in much of the region due to poor wire-line infrastructure but a recent study found 97 percent of people in Tanzania said they could access a mobile phone, while only 28 percent could access a landline.

Research in India has found Internet connectivity can be key to improving the livelihood of rural poor by giving them access to information -- everything from crop prices to the legal protocol to acquiring tenure to land. Internet access can simplify interaction with government institutions for mundane tasks like acquiring an identity card as well as potentially increasing transparency and reducing corruption in transactions with officials.

Private sector investment, through vehicles such as mobile phones and solar panels, provides a model for eradicating poverty, building dignity and respect, encouraging entrepreneurship, and reducing dependency than more traditional aid programs.

The Rema Project’s main donor is Good Energies, an energy investment company, and in 2006  its chairman, Marcel Brenninkmeijer made a public pledge to Mr. Clinton to wire Rema and other villages.  The promise was made at the Clinton Global Initiative, a yearly meeting of well-heeled donors, celebrities, and charities.

Mr. Clinton invited contributors to his foundation like Mr. Brenninkmeijer and members of the news media to get a firsthand look at his charitable work. The trip is widely seen as a way to raise publicity for the next Clinton Global Initiative meeting in September.  Mr. Clinton’s foundation works worldwide but Africa is the primary beneficiary.  Africa  has 325 million people living on less than $1 a day needing aid.  Clinton's group efforts have reduced the costs of medicines for two of the region’s biggest killers: HIV/AIDS and malaria.

Scottish philanthropist Tom Hunter gave $100 million to  the foundation to build schools and health clinics, help coffee growers in Rwanda increase their production by 20 percent, and assist the country’s government to purchase and distribute 34,000 tons of fertilizer.  In Africa and elsewhere, the foundation says they have helped 1.3 million people.Africa is a big country with many problems so transfers of technology, like solar power, hold great promise for raising the living standards of millions of people.  Africa looks like the new land of opportunity when viewed as a huge beneficiary of technology transfer and things like the microloans offered by the Gameen Foundation.



source:by Ian Wilhelm
Rema Village, Ethiopia

I was struggling to find something positive to say about Africa's future and about then Bill Clinton was featured on the Dave Letterman Show.

Bill Clinton is building a virtual army of citizens doing good deeds around the world.  Although I am a Canadian and Mr. Clinton has never been my president, like millions of other people I greatly admire his leadership and vision.  Before the interview wound up it was apparent that the one billion starving people in this world have a powerful advocate.


Clinton Global Initiative: Commitments

Excerpt: Impact of Financial Crisis

INTRODUCTION

Sub-Saharan Africa: Least integrated but the worst hit by the crisis

The global financial crisis was triggered by the bursting of the United States housing bubble in 2007 and the reverberations of this are now being felt throughout the world. The crisis was greatly exacerbated by the behaviour of banks, which has inevitably made the position of any country that has borrowed money worse off. Sub-Saharan Africa was largely insulated from the initial stages of the financial crisis as the majority of the countries in the region are de-linked from the international financial markets. However, with the worsening of the global financial and economic crisis, the region as a whole has now been exposed to the downturn, and growth estimates have been continually lowered from 5 percent in 2008 to 1.7 percent in April 2009 (IMF, 2009).

Many Sub-Saharan African countries are dependent on foreign finance inflows and are even more dependent on commodity based export growth (Naudé, 2009). This has left them particularly exposed to shocks and World Bank economists are warning that although Africa is the least integrated region, it could actually be the worst hit (Devarajan, 2009a). Given that Africa is already the most conflict ridden continent in the world, an exacerbation of resource scarcity could increase conflict across the continent.

Emerging markets (e.g. South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya) were hit first through their stock exchanges and financial links with other regions in the world; but the crisis has now affected the region‟s lower income countries (LICs) through indirect channels and because they are reliant on the stronger regional economies for trade and remittances.

In addition to financial shocks, Sub-Saharan Africa is also reeling from the food and fuel price shocks of 2007-08. Many countries in the region are already making unsatisfactory progress in their efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals; this “triple jeopardy” has thrown millions of households into poverty and will further hinder progress (World Bank, 2009).
 

Poor crops ‘to worsen’ hunger season in Horn states

POOR crop prospects this year in the Horn of Africa after below-average rains, combined with conflict and displacement, were aggravating a serious food insecurity situation in the region, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) said yesterday.
Nearly 20-million people depended on food assistance in the region, and this number might increase as the “hunger season” progresses, particularly among subsistence farmers, pastoralists and low- income urban dwellers, the Rome- based FAO said .

The effect of the oscillation in ocean temperature known as El Nino, which usually brings heavy rains towards the end of the year, could make matters worse, resulting in floods and mudslides, destroying crops both in the field and in stores, increasing livestock losses and damaging infrastructure and housing, the FAO warned.

Across eastern Africa, prices of maize, a major staple, had declined since the beginning of the year, but remained higher than they were two years ago, the FAO said.

In Uganda and Kenya, prices of maize in June were almost double their level 24 months earlier. In Khartoum, Sudan, June prices of sorghum, another staple crop, were more than double those of 2007. Similarly, prices in Mogadishu, Somalia, still remained higher than the pre-crisis period, despite declining since the middle of last year.

For pastoralists, lack of adequate pasture has worsened livestock conditions and reduced market prospects, affecting their incomes and ability to obtain staple foods.
In Uganda, production of this year’s first-season crops, completed early last month, is forecast at well below average levels, representing the fourth successive poor harvest.
In the country’s northern Acholi region, first-season cereal and pulse production is estimated to be about 50% below the average.

In Kenya, the poor performance of the “long rains” maize crop, combined with already depleted national cereal stocks, exports bans in neighbouring countries and persistent high cereal prices, have reduced food access. The maize crop, which accounts for 80% of total annual production, is estimated at 1,84-million tons, about 28% below normal .

In Ethiopia, production of the secondary “belg” season crop is also estimated at levels well below average. Scarce rains have resulted in crop losses of up to 75% in some of the hardest-hit areas.  With the partial failure of the “belg” season crop, the number of people in need of emergency assistance was expected to increase by 1.3-million to 6.2-million, the FAO said.

The FAO’s food security and nutrition analysis unit said Somalia was facing its worst humanitarian crisis in 18 years, with about half the population — 3.6-million people — in need of emergency livelihood and life-saving assistance. This included 1.4-million rural people affected by the severe drought, about 655000 urban poor facing high food and non- food prices, and 1.3-million internally displaced people .

Huge Drought

Food supplies have started to dry up and prices for what remains have soared. School chidren are offered a free school meal and some children save the food they get at school to take home to their families.

The school cook mixes up wheat and split peas - provided by the United Nations World Food Programme. The result is a stodgy concoction served up to the hungry students. The UN is currently feeding more than a million Kenyan school children.

The drought and subsequent lack of pasture is estimated to have killed more than 100,000 cattle across Kenya. And, as herds become emaciated, it is getting harder for people to sell them. Thousands of cattle have died and the remaining stock fetches little at market.

Food prices have increased, as the poor harvests have led to a shortage of staple foods like white maize. And due to the shortage in the region, prices are likely to climb higher. In some of the markets across Kenya the maize price has doubled over the past year.

Many Kenyans spend more than half their income on food, so the price increases are hitting people hard. The number in need of food aid has shot up from 2.5 to 3.8 million.

The national grain reserves currently hold enough food for less than two months
. This comes after the Kenyan government was accused of involvement in a maize scandal in which grain was being sold to Sudan.

The WFP has just appealed for $230m (£141m) to provide emergency food assistance over the next six months.

source: Will Ross BBC News, Nairobi

UN: more to go hungry in Eastern Africa

ROME — Poor crop prospects, conflict and forced migration are likely to push more people into hunger in the Horn of Africa this year, a U.N. agency said Monday.

The Food and Agriculture Organization said that it expected an increase from the nearly 20 million people currently depending on food aid in the region. Low rains are blamed for reduced crop harvests in countries such as Somalia, where about half the population needs emergency food aid.

In Uganda, the production of the first season crops is forecast at below average levels, the country's fourth successive poor harvest, the agency said. The maize crop in Kenya is estimated at about 28 percent below normal levels.

Forced migrations in search of water and pasture have worsened livestock conditions, increased disease outbreaks and worsened conflicts in the area.

Worldwide, the number of hungry people is estimated to have reached 1.02 billion — up 11 percent from last year's 915 million, FAO has said.


source: associated press

Monday, September 21, 2009

World Bank Says Don't Forget Poor Amid Crisis

WASHINGTON -- Group of 20 nations emerging from recession shouldn't forget poorer countries, which face funding needs of $11.6 billion just to maintain spending on basic services like health and education, the World Bank said Wednesday.

In a report prepared for G-20 leaders meeting in Pittsburgh next week, the bank warned that the global crisis is poised to push an additional 89 million people into extreme poverty by the end of next year if additional help isn't provided.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said recent developments suggest the global recession "may be coming to an end," including signs that the slowdown in production and trade may be over.  But low-income countries, or LICs, are expected to take longer to emerge, still suffering from a drop in the capital, trade and remittance flows their economies depend on. 

Low-income countries as a group are expected to face an external financing gap of $59 billion this year. With private financing flows on the decline, these countries will become even more dependent on external aid.  Despite a significant mobilization of resources by donor countries and agencies so far, more is needed. 

The World Bank is calling for G-20 countries step up assistance for agriculture development in poorer countries and help them protect core spending needs to avoid forcing more people into poverty. In particular, the bank wants the G-20 to take up the pledge made by Group of Eight leaders in July to provide $20 billion to eliminate bottlenecks in the agriculture sector.

Leaders should increase efforts to support small and medium-size businesses, work to complete the long-stalled Doha round of trade talks, and resist protectionist pressures.  The World Bank is also seeking support for a crisis response facility that would provide quick assistance to poor countries coping with external shocks.


source: World Bank Says Don't Forget Poor Amid Crisis _WSJ

By TOM BARKLEY

Drought worsened by Global Warming


Environmental Refugees
A devastating drought is threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions across an enormous swath of land in eastern Africa.  Observers warn an increasingly volatile climate means that portions of the region are becoming more and more inhospitable.

Drought stretches across Somalia, Djibouti, southern Ethiopia, northern and eastern Kenya, and northeastern Uganda. WFP says after the recent failed rainy season 23 million people are in need of emergency food relief, a marked increase from its previous numbers.

Historically, droughts are nothing new to these largely arid areas of the region, and the pastoral ethnic groups moving around these lands long ago learned how to prepare and recover from the normal drought cycle.  But the steady decline in rainfall in the region, combined with more frequent droughts and less predictable rainy seasons, have many worried that the current shortage of rainfall is not an isolated event but rather an indication of a new climate norm for the area.

The increasingly hostile climate has left the populations in a bitter struggle, not only against daily hunger, malnutrition, and thirst, but also a struggle to maintain their ancient ways of life; the nomadic cattle-centered livelihood.

In the near term, we may see massive hordes of environmental refugees all over Eastern Africa as it becomes increasingly less hospitable to human beings.  This recent round of drought has been made worse by inflated food prices across the affected region. Food prices in Kenya continue to sit at 100 to 130 percent greater than their normal levels.

The World Food Program says it projects it will need nearly $1 billion for the next six months to meet the needs of the region.  Lack of funding combined with the increased frequency of emergency food crises and with El Nino rains expected in early October,  the crisis is expected to deepen. 




source:  Alan Boswell,  Nairobi, 17 September 2009